Opinion

خلاصہ: The Case for a 50 Basis Points Cut: Weak Jobs Data, Cooling Inflation, and a Split FedToday’s letter is brought to you by Lava ! Lava’s bitcoin line of credit (BLOC) allows you to unlock your bitcoin’s purchasing power— instantly, flexibly, and securely— without selling your bitcoin. Now through the end of the year, Lava is offering a special promotional rate to all borrowers. Anyone who opens a BLOC this month will lock in a 5% interest rate, fixed for a full year. This is the last month to secure this rate for 2026. With Lava Refinance , you can easily bring your existing loans over to Lava and access the lowest fixed interest rates in the industry. Their white glove client services team will help you through the whole process. Lava allows you to borrow dollars in real time with no monthly payments, open terms, and full flexibility. Plus, you earn 5% APY on your USD balance, buy bitcoin with zero fees, and off-ramp globally. Grow your bitcoin wealth— without ever selling your bitcoin. Lock In Your 5% Rate Today To investors, Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee start their two day meeting later today and the market is closely watching whether the Fed will cut interest rates or not. Polymarket odds have a 25 basis point cut at 95%, while no change sits at a 5% chance. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, this will mark the third consecutive cut of the year (following 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in October) and serve as “insurance” against deepening labor market risks, even as inflation remains sticky above the 2% target. But I want to lay out the argument for the Fed to actually make a 50 basis point cut tomorrow. First, we know the labor market is softening, which is raising fears of a broader slowdown or recession if the situation is not addressed aggressively. Nonfarm payrolls added only 119,000 jobs in September. This is a sharp deceleration from post-pandemic averages and the report came in below expectations. Due to this deceleration, the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.4%. We have also seen layoff announcements surge to 1.17 million year-to-date. This is the highest level of layoff announcements we have seen since the 2020 pandemic. Simultaneously, hiring plans have reportedly hit their lowest level since the end of the Great Financial Crisis. Lastly, private-sector indicators like ADP jobs data and Challenger layoff reports have weakened even more in November. These trends suggest job growth is insufficient to match labor force expansion. The case for a 50 basis point cut related to the labor market is a larger cut would bolster employment and prevent a vicious cycle of reduced spending and further hiring freezes. But the argument for a 50 basis point cut doesn’t solely rely on the labor market. The government inflation metrics, which I believe to be wildly overestimating inflation, also provide support for a larger interest rate cut. Core PCE inflation is currently around 3% (about 1% above target), but disinflationary forces mitigate reacceleration risks. This should free the Fed to focus on their dual mandate employment goals. Critics claim goods prices remain sticky due to tariffs and fiscal stimulus, but falling crude oil prices, excess rental supply, and declining home prices introduce deflation risks that give the green light for deeper cuts in my opinion. On top of these converging forces, Fed projections and market-implied inflation show expectations anchored near 2%. This is obviously lower than consumer surveys which are projecting closer to 4% expectations, but we know the surveys are corrupted and likely further off than the market consensus. A 50 basis point cut would align with the Fed’s October statement committing to adjust policy “as appropriate if risks emerge,” so America’s central bank could easily frame the larger cut as targeted support rather than a policy pivot. So we have a weakening labor market and an inflation environment, but ultimately the decision to cut more than 25 basis points still has to be made by humans that make up the FOMC. Thankfully, there are a few common sense folks inside the building that seem to believe in the benefit of a larger cut. We know the FOMC is unusually divided right now and this could lay the foundation for a surprise aggressive cut. Governor Stephen Miran has recently dissented twice in favor of 50 basis point cuts. He argued in November it’s “appropriate” for a large December cut to counter labor risks. At the time, he said about the severity of the December cut “at a minimum 25 , but failing new information... 50 is appropriate.” Miran isn’t the only one. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have signaled support for looser monetary policy. Williams explicitly said he views a cut as “insurance” against labor slippage without jeopardizing inflation goals. So what do analysts think is going to happen inside the Fed? Analysts at Nomura forecast a dovish dissent from Miran pushing for 50 basis points, while others will have potential hawkish dissents against even a 25 basis point move. This highlights the unusual 60-40 split between committee members on easing policy. This internal dynamic, which is rare because we almost never see opposite-direction dissents over the last 35 years, could tip the balance toward bolder action or a more aggressive interest rate cut. So what are my expectations? I think we will merely get a 25 basis point cut. I wish it was a 50 basis point cut, but I just don’t see the Fed building enough internal support to be more aggressive. The market dynamics warrant the larger cut. The economy would be better off with the larger cut. Unfortunately, the Fed plays it too safe though. They are scared of seeing themselves in the mirror, let alone making a bold decision. So now we all wait and see what happens. The Fed will conduct their...

خلاصہ: The Coming Deflation Shock: Why AI, Demographics, and Policy Are Forcing the Fed’s HandToday’s Letter is brought to you by The Bitcoin Dolce Visa ! You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months. To date, Bitizenship has facilitated €25M+ in Bitcoin-aligned residency investments. A compliant, Bitcoin-native pathway into one of Europe’s strongest economies. Private placements now open. 1 Claim your free strategy call today! To investors, The US economy is getting hit with multiple deflationary forces at the same time. These converging trends are forcing the hand of the Federal Reserve towards lower interest rates and more money printing. First, we know that artificial intelligence and robotics are squeezing an insane amount of inefficiency out of every corner of the system. Companies can now drive more profits with fewer employees, which is usually referred to as “good deflation.” This is when supply expands faster than demand. So where can we see this happening in today’s economy? We see example after example of productivity surges, cost compression, and quality enhancements. This fosters a “deflationary boom,” where goods and services become cheaper, enhancing consumer purchasing power and supporting GDP growth without overheating. AI is not only making companies more productive, but we are reaching a point where AI can write its own software. Eventually, technologists promise us that humanoid robots will be doing many things in society, including manufacturing and assembling more humanoid robots. This type of exponential productivity is hard to understand today. It is probably the most important deflationary trend though. Elon Musk, the founder of numerous multi-billion dollar companies at the intersection of AI and robotics, recently discussed how these technologies should create deflation and help address the national debt crisis. Take a listen: It seems like deflation is the obvious end state when Elon explains his view on these technologies in relation to the growth of America’s money supply. But Elon understands that AI and robotics are still not making a big enough impact on the economy to reach a deflationary state yet. Part of that gap is because of the ridiculous amount of money that is being printed by the US government, but another aspect is that AI and robotics remain in a relatively nascent stage. Elon’s estimation is that the US economy will hit a deflationary period in three years: Now Elon Musk is known for aggressive timelines and plenty of critics will argue that his estimation is off by a decade or more. I wouldn’t be so sure though. The pace of innovation, and the acceleration in adoption for AI and robotics, tells me the deflationary impact is much closer than most people realize. These technology trends are not happening in a silo either. The second big trend we have to pay attention to are demographics and proposed policy shifts. Both of these are curbing consumer demand and shrinking the labor supply, creating a potential “deflationary shock.” Economist David Rosenberg highlights three converging forces: Aging workforce : The US median age is 42.3 (up from 36 in 2000), with the dependency ratio (the number of non-working people vs people of working age) rising to 37% by 2035, reducing spending on discretionary goods. Immigration restrictions : Tighter policies limit population growth and low-wage labor inflows, suppressing household formation and service-sector demand. Tariffs : broad tariffs (e.g., on imports) could slash consumer spending by raising costs, leading to a demand cliff. These three factors could weaken aggregate demand, which can cause prices to fall as businesses face oversupply and cut prices to clear inventory. On the positive side, lower demand might stabilize housing and services inflation, but it risks a vicious cycle of delayed spending and job losses, especially in retail and construction. Getting this balance right is very important. You want deflation without recession. This can only be done by creating positive supply-side factors rather than a collapse in demand. This is often called “good deflation” or “growth deflation,” where prices fall due to increased productivity, technological advancements, or efficiency improvements that boost output and real incomes. As one example, we are seeing this “good deflation” happen in energy costs over the last year. The decline in energy costs are due to increased domestic production, milder global demand, and efficiency gains from renewables and AI-optimized grids. US gasoline prices are projected to drop 3% (11 cents/gallon) in 2025 vs. 2024, with energy inflation at -1.6% year-over-year as of July 2025. These cheaper energy prices act as a broad disinflationary tailwind, including lower input costs for manufacturing and transportation. This boosts household disposable income (ex: saving the average driver ~$150/year on fuel) and supports profit margins for energy-intensive industries. However, prolonged declines could hurt oil/gas producers (ex: job cuts in Texas), contributing to regional economic slowdowns. Nationally, it reinforces the Fed’s path to 2% inflation but amplifies deflation risks if paired with weak demand elsewhere. Specific to energy costs, these drivers are predominantly supply-side (AI and increased energy production) or demand-constraining (demographics/policies). This combination promotes sustainable growth but raising risks of a sharper downturn if they intensify. Again, remember the balance of deflation without recession is really important to get right. The United States has been able to accomplish this many times throughout history. Here is a list of example time periods: We have done it before, which means we can do it again. Technology, demographics, and policies can bring prices down and create an economic boom. Elon Musk knows it is possible. He is quite literally trying to create that future. But for all the talk of inflation, it seems like many investors are ill-prepared for a world where deflation dominates the economy. As Stanley Druckenmiller once said, “Every serious deflation I’ve looked at is preceded by an asset bubble, and then it bursts.” And there are...

خلاصہ: These 5 Charts Explain The Bitcoin Market Right NowToday’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years.The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions.Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence.Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.Visit ArchPublic.com for more.To investors,Bitcoin has crashed approximately 30% from the all-time high of $126,000 on October 6th. The digital currency is now negative on the year and up less than 1% over the last 12 months. As you would expect, bitcoin holders are very disappointed in the asset’s performance.Sentiment online is about as negative as I can remember it ever being. But ancedotes on the internet can be misleading. Reddit or X can be echo chambers. So what exactly is the data telling us?Here are five charts that explain what is happening.First, Zerohedge shows that “the last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower.” That data point is a big narrative violation. Everyone, including me, expected bitcoin to close the gap between bitcoin’s price and global liquidity. Since that hasn’t happened, many people are wondering if the market has fundamentally changed now that Wall Street has started adopting the asset.Regardless of the reason, no one can dispute that bitcoin has corrected 30% in the last month and a half. James van Straten explains this is the “third 30% correction for Bitcoin this cycle. Each correction, the time from peak to trough has compressed, this has accelerated the max fear sentiment. August 2024 (Yen Carry): 147 days April 2025: (Tariffs) 77 days November 2025: 42 days”And this correction has now hit oversold territory. Coin Bureau shows “Bitcoin’s daily RSI has dropped to 26, its lowest since February, putting Bitcoin in oversold territory.”Quinten Francois highlights a similar dynamic is playing out with short-term holder supply in profit or loss. We are seeing more than 95% of all coins that have been acquired in the last 155 days are now underwater.This is obviously a fast way to drive fear into a market and tank sentiment. But markets don’t bleed forever. Eventually an asset gets cheap enough where it becomes attractive to investors. Maybe that is bitcoin at $90,000 per coin or maybe it is lower. I don’t know the exact level where we see the persistent bid return. However, Bitwise’s André Dragosch says bitcoin whales, those with more than 1,000 bitcoin, have suddenly started buying bitcoin aggressively at the current price level.So we have bitcoin’s price crashing even though global liquidity is surging higher. We have an asset that is now deeply oversold, which is enticing the bitcoin whales to start buying again. And we have a Fear and Greed index that is still registering below 20.This is the volatility, chaos, and uncertainty that forged bitcoiners over the years. Those who can keep their head straight when everyone else is losing their mind have traditionally done well. It is much easier said than done though.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin Market Just ROTATED This Month - Here’s What’s NextJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.In this conversation, we break down the recent sell-off in asset prices, including why the absence of a clear catalyst matters, how it may change the way you think about your portfolio, and where Jordi believes capital could rotate over the next 12–16 months.Enjoy!Podcast SponsorsFigure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pompBitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. 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خلاصہ: Is The Bull Market Over?Today’s Letter is Brought to You By Ledger x Moonpay!Security and simplicity don’t have to live in separate worlds. Experience the best of both with Ledger and MoonPay.Buy crypto instantly with the world’s most trusted hardware wallet, powered by MoonPay. Use your card, Apple Pay, PayPal, Venmo, or bank transfer directly in your Ledger Live.Together, Ledger and MoonPay make crypto simple and secure, combining cold storage protection with an effortless on-ramp trusted by millions in more than 180 countries. Your assets stay in your hands while MoonPay connects you to the entire crypto universe.Ledger is your vault. MoonPay is your key to open every digital door securely.Buy, store, and manage crypto, your way with MoonPay + Ledger.Check out Ledger x MoonpayTo investors,The market sell-off on Thursday and Friday last week has spooked many investors. They are wondering if the bull market in stocks is over? Are we on the cliff of a 75% drawdown in bitcoin? Will the doomsday pessimists finally have their day in the sun?These are all legitimate questions. But before we can pontificate about the future, we must analyze what is happening right now in the market. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, had one of the best explanations over the weekend. He writes:“There were two factors driving this market this year:Easy money due to the resumption of rate cuts.Continued optimism on the AI trade which was also helped by the easy money to fund debt related CAPEX build outs.Recently these twin pillars of the market have been called into question:A December 10th rate cut seems to be a toss up for the Fed with four or more dissents likely even if there is a cut.OpenAI talking about a government backstop forced investors to question whether a company that will generate run rate revenues of $20B exiting this year can fund $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments.As a result of the above, high valuations for the market in general and especially some of the more speculative sectors reliant on easy money are now being called into question.As a result, this past week while the S&P was up 0.1%, the Magnificent 7 were down 1.1% while my AI index was down 3.2% due to the concerns above. The Russell 2000 in which over one-third of the names are unprofitable and therefore more reliant on easy money was down 1.8%.”Dan’s point about investors questioning the future is hard to argue with. You can see sentiment shifting in real-time online and market prices are the signals that never lie.The White House and President Trump’s administration is not one to sit on the sidelines while the fear-mongers run wild. White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett went on ABC and explained why the new economic policies under the current administration is actually helping Americans:“Purchasing power dropped by about $3,000 under Biden because the wages didn’t keep up with prices. Under Trump, it’s already gone up by about $1,200. We understand that people still feel the pain of the high prices, but we’re closing the gap fast.”Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sees an even bigger boom in purchasing power on the horizon. He was on television yesterday explaining to Maria Bartiromo how American citizens are poised to see their real purchasing power “substantially accelerate” in the first half of 2026. Take a listen:Energy prices are down. Interest rates are down. Those are both important facts when evaluating the economic policies that Bessent, Trump, Hassett and others have put into place. But my favorite part of Bessent’s conversation was his pledge to refrain from telling the American people how they are feeling. I remember when the All-In podcast guys interviewed Bessent earlier this year, they asked him if he believed the official economic data. Bessent said “no.” But more importantly, he explained that the data had been saying one thing over the last few years, but the American people were screaming from the rooftop about a different personal experience.In that situation, who are you going to believe? Do you listen to the data or do you listen to the people? Take Ritholtz’s Ben Carlson as an example. He wrote a great piece titled “What If Things Are Better Than They Seem?” In it Carlson points out the following data points:54% of Americans with incomes between $30k and $80k now have a taxable brokerage account and half of them have entered the stock market in the past 5 years.Robinhood has something like 25 million customers. For half of them, it’s the first brokerage account they’ve ever opened.Nearly 40% of 25-year-olds now have investment accounts up from just 6% in 2015.Households with incomes below the median now account for one-third of JP Morgan customers moving money into investment accounts up from 20% in the 2010s.We’ve gone from housing being your biggest investment to the stock market. Just look at the increase in stock holdings for people under 40:Besides that being an insane chart of a 300% increase since 2020, my big takeaway is that the data may not matter. People are feeling pain. Grocery prices are too high. Electricity bills are too high. Rent and home prices are no better. It is so bad out there that the New York Times ran an op-ed recently arguing that we should implement price controls on various products and services.There is madness everywhere you look. But lets bring it back to investment assets. All this pain in the regular economy is unlikely to pull down stock prices. Companies are producing more profits with less employees. They are becoming more productive, more efficient, and more valuable. You can fake forecasts, but you can’t fake 30% year-over-year growth for a trillion dollar company.In terms of bitcoin, we just got two straight days of the Fear & Greed Index sitting at a score of 10. That is very rare. Quinten Francois shows “the average performance when Fear and Greed drops below 20:1 day +0.9%1 week +5.2%1 month +19.9%3 months +62.4%6 months +48.5%”So what is going to happen...

خلاصہ: Home Affordability Determines Monetary Policy, Financial Markets, and PoliticsToday’s letter is brought to you by Lava!Lava’s bitcoin-backed line of credit allows you to unlock your bitcoin’s purchasing power— instantly, flexibly, and securely— without selling your bitcoin.Borrow dollars in real time with no monthly payments, open terms, and the lowest fixed interest rates in the industry— starting at just 5%.Lava is the only bitcoin lending platform available globally—you can borrow from any country or state.With Lava, you can access a full suite of bitcoin-powered financial tools:→ Borrow dollars instantly→ Earn 5% APY ****on your USD balance→ Buy bitcoin with zero feesIt’s everything you need to grow your bitcoin wealth— without ever selling your bitcoin.Get Started Today!To investors,The home affordability crisis is having a ripple effect across American politics, financial markets, and society at large. This issue will be one of the most important things for investors to pay attention to over the next decade.First, home affordability is impacting central bank monetary policy. This summer Jerome Powell said “the best thing we can do for the housing market is to restore price stability.” Take a listen:While Powell’s comments are true that inflation stabilizing would have a positive impact on housing, the current administration believes the artificially high interest rates are also contributing to an erosion of home affordability. This makes sense…if interest rates are high, mortgage rates are high. If mortgage rates are high, fewer people can afford to own a home.This position from the Trump administration has led to a very public pressure campaign from the President, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte to get rates lower. Jerome Powell and the Fed will claim they don’t succumb to pressure campaigns, but the Fed started cutting rates within weeks of the public pressure ramping up over the summer. Could it be a coincidence? Sure. Do I think the lack of home affordability in America is influencing Fed monetary policy? Absolutely. But home affordability is not only affecting monetary policy. We see in financial markets that companies in the real estate market have done very well as investors place bets on various companies’ ability to solve the housing crisis. Take Opendoor as one example. Retail investors have flocked to the stock and went activist on the old management team. The CEO stepped down shortly after the activist campaign started, the company hired the former COO of Shopify, and Opendoor is now going through a significant transition from an investment company to a software company.These various changes have led to the company’s stock price going from around $0.50 at the low this year to the closing price of $9.37 per share yesterday. Can Opendoor increase access to home ownership? We are going to find out. But I became an investor in the company this year and am genuinely proud to have my investment dollars helping to fund a company that is focused on helping more Americans own a home. I suspect there are many others like me who want to see this problem solved.This is an interesting dichotomy from the performance of various home builders. Lennar is down -0.2% year-to-date, D.R. Horton is up only 6%, and NVR is down nearly 9% in the same timeframe. PulteGroup is one of the rare standouts with a nearly 13% appreciation this year.As I mentioned at the start, the housing market is having an impact everywhere. It touches on technology, tariffs, and monetary policy. It is a complex market that will create lots of mispricings over time. Investors are trying to figure out who can create value over the long run and who can’t. But nowhere is housing having a bigger impact than in American politics.We saw Zohran Mamdani get elected New York City mayor while openly running as a socialist who promised free buses, rent freezes, and government-run grocery stores. President Trump and his administration have floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage to help alleviate the financial pressures preventing young people from buying a home. And Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte told me last week in a public interview that US home builders need to build more homes or the US government may take a deeper look at what federal dollars are flowing to these companies.Monetary policy. Financial markets. Politics. Everywhere you look, home affordability is driving part of the story. So how do we fix this? What is the solution?You build more housing. Yes, it is really that simple.It doesn’t even matter what type of housing you build. You can build affordable housing and the increased supply will drive down the cost of affordable housing. More supply means lower prices. Economics 101. But recent studies show that building luxury apartments also drive down housing costs in a city. The UPJohn Institute writes:“In cities with tight housing markets, policymakers have struggled to help lower-income residents afford homes. New research shows that just building new housing—even expensive housing—can quickly drive down housing costs across metro areas, including in low-income neighborhoods.Building housing sets off a process called a migration chain, as people leave their homes to move into new units. When people vacate a given type of unit, it loosens the market for that type of unit, which lowers prices. Other people move into the newly vacant homes, leaving their previous units vacant, and the process repeats itself again and again.”So what is my big takeaway from this? The first principles solution to numerous issues and complexities in American society is to simply build more housing. It will positively impact monetary policy, financial markets, and politics. More housing pushes us back towards the American dream. More housing increases adoption of capitalism and democracy. And more housing helps American families get closer to the financial security they are passionately chasing.Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementJordi Visser Explains Why $100K Bitcoin Is Just the Beginning Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He...

خلاصہ: The Trump Put Has ArrivedJoin us at the 3rd Annual Bitcoin Investor Week!The 3rd annual Bitcoin Investor Week is returning to NYC on February 9th - 13th. This is the largest gathering of serious bitcoin investors in the world. 2,500+ people are expected this year.Speakers include Jan van Eck, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, Anthony Scaramucci, Matt Cole, Caitlin Long, Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, Brandon Lutnick, Fred Thiel, and many others.TICKETS: https://bitcoininvestorweek.comGet Your Tickets NowTo investors,The bears have been in control of financial markets over the last few days. The S&P 500 is down 2.5% over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq is down 4% during the same timeframe. Bitcoin is down 5% over the last week. It has been a sea of flashing red numbers for a week.But have no fear, the Trump Put is here. The President of the United States of America decided to come out swinging on Sunday morning with a Truth Social post promising a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to every US citizen who isn’t a high-income earner.You didn’t think the President who measures the health of the US economy based on the stock market was going to sit around and let the bears take a victory lap, did you?Now will the tariff dividends happen? I have no idea. Polymarket odds are only at 15% right now.Another question is whether it matters if the tariff dividends actually happen? I don’t think so. The Trump Put already had its intended effect.It only took this one social media post to completely change the direction of travel for asset prices. Stocks and bitcoin have surged higher as enthusiasm returned to the market. This is the Trump Put. He has consistently made announcements that influenced the stock market at opportune times. You may remember his social media post saying “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” right before the market bottomed in April of this year. Trump backed down from his 100% tariff threat on China about an hour before futures opened on Sunday night a few weeks ago. And yesterday, amid all the panic and fear, the shining light on the hill was a simple promise from the leader of the free world to send out billions of dollars in stimulus checks.Are stimulus checks a good idea for the long term health of the US economy? Of course not. Does anyone care right now? Not really. People are too focused on the short-term fears of a stock bubble or a perceived incoming bitcoin bear market. Most people think if the President wants to hand out $2,000 to millions of citizens, especially right after a socialist agenda was voted into power in NYC due to affordability issues, then let the man hand out the money. It is complete disregard for the long-term strength of the economy and the devaluation of the US dollar.Remember, inflation can only be created in Washington DC and a fast way to increase the odds of high inflation is to hand out thousands of dollars to hundreds of millions of people. But this Trump Put is not the only thing likely to drive asset prices higher through the end of the year. We already know clarity on the China trade deal is coming. We also saw the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time in the same number of meetings. And now Polymarket is showing the odds improving of the government shutdown being resolved before November 15th.Sunday morning started out with a 62% odds of the shutdown being resolved after November 16th, but throughout the last 24 hours those odds plummeted to only 7%. A big reason for this change is the report last night that an agreement was reached in the Senate that would see enough Democrats step across the aisle and vote for the government to reopen.If we get the government shutdown behind us, you should expect stocks and bitcoin to go higher quickly. Opening Bell Daily’s Phil Rosen writes “The US has seen 21 shutdowns in the last 50 years and the S&P 500 has gained 1.2% one month later and 2.9% three months later on average. Stocks are almost always higher after a government shutdown.”Altcoin Gordon shows that bitcoin rallied 50% in 3 months coming out of the last government shutdown as well.So what is going to happen here? No one knows. We are all trying to predict an unknowable future. But what I have learned in the last 5 or 6 years is to trust the vibes. Trust the sentiment. Trust the animal spirits.Whatever you want to call it. How people feel about the market tends to determine how the market performs. And last week was a great example. The fear porn and negative takes were obvious. Folks were predicting the next bitcoin bear market or the end of the stock market rally. But this week is already different. We just needed the promise of some stimulus checks to get everyone giddy again. And if everyone is giddy, capital will flow into the market lifting asset prices.I am not the smartest guy in the world, but I know not to fade the Trump Put. We got the put yesterday morning. Asset prices are responding. And the bull market is back on again.Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementJordi Visser Explains Bitcoin, Tesla, AI, and the Shifting Political LandscapeJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation, we discuss Bitcoin’s “IPO moment” — why investors are feeling disappointed, what’s really happening beneath the surface, and how these dynamics could reshape portfolios in the months ahead. Jordi also shares his perspective on Tesla, artificial intelligence, and the shifting political landscape — explaining how the New York City mayor race and overall market sentiment could influence the next phase of global investing.Enjoy!Podcast SponsorsFigure – Lowest...

خلاصہ: Artificial Intelligence Is Eating Personal FinanceTo investors,Artificial intelligence is allowing people to accomplish tasks faster and cheaper than they previously did when they relied on a human. The technology is particularly good at ingesting data, conducting complex calculations, and delivering unique insights.I know this is true because we built a software product this year called Silvia that is proving the thesis.Let me explain how it works.Wealthy people have entire teams working for them to better understand their finances and help identify potential areas of improvement. They have portfolio managers, bankers, tax experts, and accountants just to name a few.The average person can’t afford to hire the same team. In fact, the average person is left on their own to manage their finances and figure out how to grow their investment portfolio.This is where Silvia comes in.I wanted to build a product that democratized access to the same intelligence the wealthy have, while dropping the cost to zero. The only way to do that is through software and artificial intelligence.Anyone can sign up for Silvia, attach their financial information, and then Silvia will get to work helping them improve their financial life. You can connect your bank accounts, your brokerage accounts, your crypto accounts and wallets, your private startup investments, your small business ownership, your real estate portfolio, your cars, your collectibles, and any other asset you own.Once Silvia is connected to your data, she starts using her superhuman intelligence to accomplish tasks smarter, faster, and cheaper than a human.Here are some things you can do with Silvia:You can chat, email, or call Silvia to ask her any question about your finances (cash balance, debt-to-equity ratio, correlations, etc).You can upload your tax returns and ask Silvia how to get your tax rate lower.You can ask Silvia how real world events will impact your portfolio seconds after they occur (ex: How will the US-China trade agreement affect my stocks?).You can do Scenario Planning (ex: what will happen to my finances in a recession? What is likely to happen if I increase my Palantir allocation to 3%?).You can run Monte Carlo simulations with 100,000 simulations to see where you will be financially in a decade.You can do deep research on a potential investment idea and ask Silvia whether she thinks it is a good idea to buy or not.The possibilities are essentially limitless. A big reason this is possible is because we have taught Silvia how to code, so she can write custom code to execute any task, regardless of how difficult it is.Silvia was built for me personally and it is the most powerful finance product I have ever used.I am not the only one who thinks so either. Since our public launch 5 months ago, Silvia has grown to more than $15 billion in assets. The average user is a multi-millionaire and more than 90% of all users who connect an account have talked with Silvia.This is the power of artificial intelligence. You give it specific, unique data and the software can begin doing things smarter, faster, and cheaper than a human.Silvia is completely free to use. You can sign up here: https://www.cfosilvia.com/Sign Up For Free To Use SilviaHope everyone has a great end to their week. I will talk to you on Monday.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementMel Mattison on Bitcoin’s Current Price ActionMel Mattison is one of the leading macro strategists on the internet, known for his deep insights into global markets and digital assets. In this conversation, Mel explains why he believes bitcoin is quietly building a strong base for its next move higher. We cover the key macro forces shaping markets — from Fed policy and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision to the sustainability of the AI boom and rising geopolitical tensions.Enjoy!Podcast SponsorsFigure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.comXapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events...

خلاصہ: This Stock Dividend Idea Could Save AmericaToday’s letter is brought to you by Lava!Lava’s bitcoin-backed line of credit allows you to unlock your bitcoin’s purchasing power— instantly, flexibly, and securely— without selling your bitcoin.Borrow dollars in real time with no monthly payments, open terms, and the lowest fixed interest rates in the industry— starting at just 5%.Lava is the only bitcoin lending platform available globally—you can borrow from any country or state.With Lava, you can access a full suite of bitcoin-powered financial tools:→ Borrow dollars instantly→ Earn 5% APY ****on your USD balance→ Buy bitcoin with zero feesIt’s everything you need to grow your bitcoin wealth— without ever selling your bitcoin.Get Started Today!To investors,The US economy is in a very weird position. We are watching companies accelerate their earnings, while the job market is declining at a rapid pace. You will read headlines about how great everything is going followed by headlines about how horrible everything is.Both perspectives are true. It just depends where you are looking.Take corporate earnings as a positive example. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello writes “with 70% of companies reported, S&P 500 operating earnings are up 19% year-over-year, the 11th straight positive quarter and highest growth rate since Q4 2021.”Given how well corporations are doing, you would expect investors to be euphoric. Their portfolios are growing in value and stocks keep climbing higher. But in the surprise of the year, investors are incredibly negative right now.Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick points out investor sentiment currently sits at Extreme Fear even though “a few days ago the S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq-100 all closed at new monthly all-time highs.”It is crazy to think about stocks at all-time highs, yet investor sentiment in the toilet. Those are the type of ingredients that almost certainly guarantee we can’t be at a market top. The sentiment divergence is not exclusive to investors either. Jim Bianco shows consumer sentiment is falling rapidly as well. He writes “Red is the stock market. It’s going straight up. Rate cuts help. Blue is consumer sentiment, it’s going straight down and is near a multi decade low. Inflation (affordability) is driving this measure lower. Rate cuts hurt.”Lets go back to investors for a second though. Ryan Detrick goes on to explain that the market is overwhelmed with bearish investors. They are everywhere. He writes “AAII bulls minus bears is -11.1% in 2025. Only 3 other times has this ever been -10% and all happened in bear markets (1990, 2008, and 2022). Incredibly, bears outnumber bulls by 11.1% in ‘08, the exact same level as in 2025 so far.”But the dichotomy gets even weirder when you dig deeper into the data. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was asked about the US economy last night in an interview and he said “Which way is the stock market going? Up, up, up! Which way is the economy going? 3.8% last quarter... the economy is on fire because Donald Trump’s economy is one that says... BUILD IN AMERICA.”Lutnick is not wrong. But contrast that with the jobs data that came out this morning. CNBC’s Jeff Cox explains:“Job cuts for the month totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003. This has been the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.”So the economy is booming but the job market is deteriorating. Stocks are flying higher, yet sentiment is succumbing to gravity. The obvious culprits are artificial intelligence and interest rate cuts. Both trends help corporations and asset owners at the expense of the average citizen who has little to no investment assets.I don’t know what the solution to this problem is. The complexity here is hard to overstate. You can’t allow corporations and asset owners to be destroyed because job losses will only accelerate. You can’t continue to have half of the country being financially destroyed due to technology, economic conditions, and a lack of financial education.This may be one of the great challenges of our time. We have to walk a tight rope between these opposing forces. A potential solution is to get more Americans invested in the capitalist system. Programs like Invest America, which wants to fund a stock brokerage account for every baby born in America, could have a positive impact. The issue with a program like that is it will take decades to see the impact.It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pursue the program. We just can’t count on it as a magic solution today. One idea I have been thinking through is a “Stock Dividend” to the American people. It could work as a potential tax rebate. The government would determine an amount to be returned to every citizen, but rather than pay in cash, the government would deliver shares of the S&P 500 or Nasdaq.There are a lot of nuances that would have to be figured out. And we have to remember a large portion of the country doesn’t pay federal income tax, so you would have to account for those people in the program too. But this type of creative, entrepreneurial idea would get every American a stake in the economic system. It would have a profoundly positive impact on their financial life and it would likely create a less divisive political environment.The people are screaming they need help. How the government, the economy, and corporations decide to respond will determine a lot about the next few years in the United States.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin’s Big Risk ExposedJeff Park is the Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this conversation, we dive into the current bitcoin market cycle — why price sentiment has shifted, whether younger investors are losing interest, and where the next wave of buyers could come from.Jeff also breaks down how both macro forces like interest rates and micro market dynamics are influencing bitcoin’s...

خلاصہ: The People's Voice Was Heard Last NightToday’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years. The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence. Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.Visit ArchPublic.com for more.To Investors,We saw Democrat candidates win major races yesterday for Governor of Virginia, Governor of New Jersey, and mayor of New York City. This is a good ‘ole fashion ass kicking. A straight rout across the board in favor of the Democrats.Half of the country is waking up happy this morning and the other half is left wondering how we got to this point. But put politics aside for a second.There is a very important finance and economics story smacking us in the face. The voice of the people was heard last night. They are clearly telling the world that rent is too high, groceries are too expensive, the system is not working for them, and change is needed.You can see these problems clearly in the data.First, the difference in sentiment between the people who make more than $100,000 and those who make less than $100,000 is widening. You can see this clearly getting worse since the summer of 2022 and accelerating in 2025.You can call it a k-shaped economy. You can call it a bifurcation. No matter what you call it, the economy is being split into two groups: those that own assets and those that don’t.This k-shaped economy related to sentiment passes through to consumer spending habits. We know that the top 10% of earners account for half of US personal spending.But when you dig into consumer prices of every day items like groceries, you can see a very big problem. Adam Kobeissi writes “US grocery prices have risen +5.3% YoY as of July 2025. To put this differently, if a family spends ~$1,000 a month or $12,000 a year on groceries, this marks an average annual increase of +$636.”Home affordability doesn’t offer a much different story. Kobeissi continues by showing “it would take a -38% drop in home prices OR a +60% JUMP in household income JUST for affordability to go back to 2019 levels. You must now make ~$113,000/year to afford the MEDIAN home in the US.”The problem is only going to get worse in the short-term too. For example, artificial intelligence is driving a wedge into the job market. You see the people who are using AI continue to grow revenue and profits, while the working class is watching job openings fall off a cliff as AI begins replacing many jobs.So the financial answer is for people to acquire assets. Bill D’Alessandro shows this chart of wage growth vs. asset appreciation. He says “you’ve got to be converting your time/wages into assets. Best time to start was 20 years ago, second best time is now.”So when I think about what is happening here, you have to believe multiple things are true. The people are voicing their opinion for a reason. Affordability in America is way too high. We have to bring that down and provide relief for millions of people. You also have to see that the financial answer is for more people to own assets, but understand why that is nearly impossible to get people to do. Our schools don’t even teach financial education, let alone most young people having the ability to understand investing.At the same time, the rise in popularity for dumb ideas like socialism is a response to the affordability crisis. If you don’t have a financial solution, you immediately look for a different release value. It is easy to get swindled by a charismatic guy who promises a bunch of free things, especially when that guy is explicitly acknowledging the pain that you are experiencing. It doesn’t make the socialist ideas good. But it is understandable why the message resonates. Over the coming weeks I will explore the various ways this change is going to impact financial markets, but I will leave you with one of the important truths I have come to believe: the voice of the people will ultimately be heard.And their message was crystal clear last night.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementRecession Odds, Bitcoin’s Future & NYC Mayor ElectionAnthony and John Pompliano break down today’s markets — from Scott Bessent’s U.S. outlook and Tom Lee’s bullish call to Jordi Visser’s take on Bitcoin’s “IPO moment.” They also cover job growth, mega themes, the New York City mayoral race, and Anthony’s latest thoughts on bitcoin and stocks.Enjoy!Podcast SponsorsFigure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to...

خلاصہ: The AI Mega Deals Are Here & Stocks Will Keep Going HigherToday’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees1 on your first transaction.CLAIM ZERO FEESTo investors,The stock market has been on a tear this year. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% and the Nasdaq has surged 23% higher year-to-date. This outperformance is largely attributed to the investment boom related to artificial intelligence.But one question lingers in the mind of every investor…are we in an AI bubble?The answer to that question will determine the portfolio returns of tens of millions of people. Before we discuss whether we are in a bubble or not, it is important to understand what is actually happening in the economy.The best description I have seen comes from Adam Kobeissi when he wrote about the AI construction boom:“The Dodge Momentum Index surged +60% YoY in September, to the highest on record. This index serves as a leading indicator of non-residential construction, tracking projects that typically move from planning to groundbreaking within 9–12 months. The jump was led by a +75% YoY spike in institutional projects such as healthcare and public buildings, and a +53% jump in commercial activity driven by data centers and retail. The index also rose +3% MoM in September, extending a powerful uptrend after +5% in August and +21% in July. In other words, the surge in AI-driven data center projects is set to translate into a powerful construction boom across the US in 2026. AI’s impact on the real economy is accelerating.”Goldman Sachs and Mike Zaccardi explain a big reason for this explosion is that mega-cap companies continue to exceed expectations on their AI CAPEX spending.So whether we are in a bubble or not, we know that companies are sinking insane amounts of money into building data centers and power generation. In fact, the investment in power generation is very important to pay attention to because the market is realizing that power, not chips, are the limiting factor for hyperscalers. Don’t take my word for it though. Here is Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella explaining the lack of power supply on a recent episode of the BG2 podcast:It is crazy to hear the CEO of a multi-trillion dollar company saying he has the compute capacity, but he doesn’t have the data centers and power supply to plug them into. This completely changes the way that investors will view the AI market.Strategist Shay Boloor explains:“The real constraint is not compute but power & data center space. This is exactly why access to powered data centers has become the new leverage point. If compute is easy to buy but power is hard to get, the leverage moves to whoever controls energy & infrastructure. Every new data center that $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META & $ORCL are trying to build needs hundreds of megawatts of steady power. Getting that energy online now takes years which means the players who locked in power early & built vertically across the stack are the ones with real control. Hyperscaler growth is no longer defined by how many GPUs they can buy but by how quickly they can energize new capacity.”Now Shay wrote this analysis before this morning’s mega announcements of energy deals with the hyperscalers. VanEck’s Matt Sigel points out “$15 billion in Bitcoin mining deals this morning. Sector market cap: ~$65 billion. Imagine if oil majors announced deals worth 20% of their market cap in one day. That’s how fast AI is rewiring the global energy stack.”The two deals this morning come from IREN and CIFR, two bitcoin mining businesses that are making the transition into AI data center providers. IREN announced a $9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft and CIFR announced a $5.5 billion deal with Amazon’s AWS.These mega deals prove the point that Satya Nadella was making. There is a significant supply-demand imbalance for data centers and energy production. You don’t have to be Albert Einstein to realize that the companies who solve this problem will create significant value for their shareholders.It is hard to have a bubble in AI when every person you talk to is yelling from the rooftop that demand is drastically outpacing supply. Bubbles only pop when a market gets saturated with supply and there are no buyers left. We are very, very far away from that moment. It doesn’t mean we won’t get there at some point in the future, but it does mean you can stop listening to the market crash predictors right now.Even the President of the United States believes “everybody wants AI because it’s the new internet. It’s the new everything. It’s one of the biggest things anyone’s ever seen. So everyone wants it. Yeah. I mean, the only problem is if you don’t get it.”It is hard to be bearish on a sector when the most powerful man in the world is actively creating policies that act as a tailwind for the industry.With that said, if I had to look at one aspect where risk can start to metastasize, it would be the use of leverage to fund CAPEX investments. We know that companies are reaching the limit of how much cash flow can be used for CAPEX investments. Mike Zaccardi shares a great chart to highlight where we are currently:Rohan Paul highlights the recent Bank of America research showing borrowing to fund AI data center spending has accelerated at a dizzying pace in September and October. Regardless of whether you are a bull or a bear on the AI bubble debate, no one is going to solve it. Only the market can do that. The market...

خلاصہ: Coinbase Earnings Show Crypto Is Eating Wall StreetTo investors,Coinbase has long been one of the most important companies in the bitcoin and crypto industry. Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam started the business in 2012 as one of the first American-based on-ramps for bitcoin.Since inception, the company has grown to become one of the leading finance platforms in the world. We saw just how dominant they are during their earnings report yesterday.Coinbase reported:$1.87 billion in revenue$433 million in net income$516 billion in assets on platformThese numbers are bonkers. To put it in context, Coinbase has nearly double the number of assets on their platform compared to Robinhood. Coinbase has enough assets to be in the top 10 bank list from the legacy system.Pretty incredible to see how fast the business has grown, but it is even more impressive to see how large they have become. Crypto is no longer an outcast of finance. Coinbase is proving that crypto companies are likely going to dominate the industry for the foreseeable future.As if that wasn’t exciting enough, Brian Armstrong proved yesterday he understands the retail investor movement better than most public company CEOs. Armstrong pulled up a prediction market at the end of their earnings call and he rattled off all the words people were betting he would say. Take a listen:I figured stuff like this would eventually happen, but I definitely didn’t think it would happen so fast. Brian tweeted later in the day saying it was completely spontaneous because someone on their team had dropped a Polymarket link into their team chat during the earnings call.Regardless of how it happened, this is further proof that prediction markets may drive outcomes rather than outcomes driving prediction markets. No one should hate a little fun from time to time. This brings me back to Coinbase as a business. They are accelerating growth, driving profits, buying more bitcoin and crypto assets, and they are expanding their product suite into every corner of finance. What a time to be alive. Crypto is eating Wall Street and Coinbase is leading the charge.I am a shareholder of COIN through one of the venture funds that I manage, but it feels like maybe we are all underexposed to this theme. Robinhood is attacking from the brokerage angle. Coinbase is attacking from the crypto side. They are going to meet in the middle and finance will never be the same.Hope you have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to everyone on Monday.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementCoinbase Institutional Believes Banks Will Hold Bitcoin EventuallyBrett Tejpaul is the Co-CEO of Coinbase Institutional, leading one of the most influential divisions shaping how major firms enter the crypto market. In this conversation, we explore how Coinbase is driving institutional adoption of digital assets — from bitcoin and altcoins to tokenized securities and on-chain assets. Brett shares how the firm is preparing for the next wave of Wall Street entrants, what risks and opportunities lie ahead for Coinbase, and why the digital-asset treasury era is only just beginning.Enjoy!Podcast SponsorsFigure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabsBitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.comXapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.Source InformationPublisher: The Pomp LetterOriginal Source: Read more

خلاصہ: Markets Just Got The Green Light To Go Much Higher Through The End Of The YearJoin us at the 3rd Annual Bitcoin Investor Week!The 3rd annual Bitcoin Investor Week is returning to NYC on February 9th - 13th. This is the largest gathering of serious bitcoin investors in the world. 2,500+ people are expected this year.Speakers include Jan van Eck, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, Anthony Scaramucci, Matt Cole, Caitlin Long, Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, Brandon Lutnick, Fred Thiel, and many others.TICKETS: https://bitcoininvestorweek.comGet Your Tickets NowTo investors,Uncertainty is a cancer that can spread fear through a market. It can kill optimism quickly because as the uncertainty mounts, the flow of capital slows and asset prices lose momentum. It is this loss of momentum that becomes dangerous to bull markets.Thankfully, we got extreme clarity yesterday on two major topics that investors care about: interest rates and our China trade relationship.First, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25 basis points during the conclusion of this week’s meeting. The decision was not a surprise, but some of Powell’s commentary around the decision was noteworthy.The Fed Chairman still believes there is potential risk to rising inflation, which frankly has failed to show up as he previously predicted, and he believes there is continued pressure on the labor market. His exact words were “risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside.”That is central banker speak for “we are watching the market but there is not explicit problem I can point to and scare you with at the moment.”At another point Jerome Powell was asked about the potential of a bubble in AI and the comparison to the 1999 tech boom. His answer was interesting:Business models. Revenue. Profits. You know, things that real companies have! This rational take from the leading central banker will hopefully quell some of the doomsday predictions of a massive bubble in AI.So the good news coming out of the Fed press conference yesterday is that rates were cut once again. The 25 basis points decrease brings cheaper capital into the market, incentivized more research and development in the corporate sector, and should result in asset prices continuing to go higher over the coming weeks.But the interest rate cut was not the only clarity we received yesterday.Last night we got word from President Trump’s visit to Asia that the United States has struck an agreement with China. This agreement is widely being reported as a tariff truce that is aimed at easing trade barriers the two countries have put on each other in recent months. Given the fact that tariffs were not fully removed, I don’t know if I would call it a truce. I would likely call this something more akin to a de-escalation when it comes to tariffs.Regardless of the specific wording, the important thing is that an agreement has been reached. Both the United States and China can claim victory in the outcome, which is an important component too.So what exactly was agreed to? Bloomberg explains the main components of this agreement include the US cutting tariffs on Chinese goods related to fentanyl down to 10%, China will buy a “tremendous amounts” of US soybeans and other farm goods, China will pause sweeping controls on rare earth exports, the US will roll back expansion of restrictions on Chinese companies, the US will extend a pause on some reciprocal tariffs for a year, and China will work with the US to resolve issues related to TikTok.It seems that both sides gave something in the negotiation, which is how a good deal gets done. Everyone has to walk away feeling like they could have gotten a slightly better deal. But the leaders of both countries seemed to be pleased with the meeting. Even President Trump described it as a 12 out of 10 and had many nice things to say about President Xi. This brings us back to how investors should perceive these events. It is nearly impossible to see interest rate cuts and a China agreement as a bearish catalyst that will lead to lower asset prices. The exact opposite is likely to happen. The United States is open for business and we have been running around the world striking trade deals that increase the amount of capital being invested in our country.Add in the fact that our central bank realizes they have to get the cost of capital down, which is why they continue to cut rates, and you have a clear picture of the ingredients needed for a bull run to continue. Clarity brings capital. Capital brings higher prices. Higher prices brings momentum. And momentum is really hard to stop once it gets going. The bull run is underway. The pessimists are wrong. This train won’t stop any time soon, so make sure you don’t poison your brain with fear porn.We are cleared for lift off. The next few weeks and months should be a lot of fun. Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementWall Street Gives Credit Rating To Strategy For First TimeJeff Park is the Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this conversation, we unpack why Strategy securing a credit rating marks a major milestone for Bitcoin adoption. Jeff breaks down what it means for corporate balance sheets, the upcoming Solana staking ETF, and how prediction markets are shaping global narratives — including the wild debate over whether Donald Trump might actually be Satoshi.Enjoy!Podcast SponsorsFigure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into...

خلاصہ: The Fed Is Poised To Cut Interest Rates & Markets Will Go Much HigherToday’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years.The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions.Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence.Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.Visit ArchPublic.com for more.To investors,Today’s Federal Reserve meeting is the talk of finance. The central bank has been behind the curve for months. They previously prided themselves on being “data dependent,” but earlier this year there was a subtle pivot in strategy and the Fed began trying to predict future inflation levels.The big fear in the first half of 2025 was tariffs were going to create significant inflation. This was the excuse the Fed used for explaining why they were not cutting interest rates. If that inflation was likely to show up, the Fed’s logic would have made sense.But it was obvious from the beginning that higher inflation was not going to happen. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve’s transition from data dependence to market predictor prevented them from making good monetary policy decisions.Thankfully, the Fed has now been backed into a corner. They can’t ignore reality anymore. Instead of talking about inflation concerns, the Fed has found the new boogeyman: the labor market.Rather than admit they were wrong in their prior predictions, Jerome Powell and his crew are simply saying “the labor market is forcing us to change our mind.” Smart strategy from the central bankers. They never have to admit a mistake and claim victory on addressing a weak labor market.There are a few important things to pay attention to today though. The biggest thing in my opinion is how strong guidance on future rate cuts will be. I don’t expect the Fed to say how many cuts, nor how large the future cuts will be, but given the economic data trends it would make sense for them to commit to continued rate cuts at the next few meetings.Mohamed A. El-Erian doesn’t expect this to happen though. He writes “the Federal Reserve will deliver the widely anticipated 25 bps cut and signal the impending end of QT. It is also likely to acknowledge that the inflationary pass-through of tariffs has been less than expected. The world’s most powerful central bank is unlikely, however, to explicitly validate the additional cuts that markets have priced in or fully embrace the significant productivity upside from AI and other innovations.”This approach would be surprising to me because it seems so obvious that the labor market is getting smacked in the face by technology forces. Just look at the recent layoff announcements by many companies that are actively implementing artificial intelligence and automation throughout their business.You rarely see more than 100,000 employees being laid off when stocks are hitting all-time highs, companies are reporting record earnings, and year-over-year growth rates are accelerating. This explosion of productivity is coming as a direct result of technology making companies more efficient, which will only continue in the coming years.So the Fed can ignore technology all they want, but it won’t change reality. And the reality is that interest rates will have to continue falling in order to address the labor issues.So this brings us to the most important question for investors…where will the market go from here? What should we expect with asset prices?Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick reminds us the past 21 times the Fed cut interest rates with the S&P 500 within 2% of an all-time high, stocks were higher a year later 21 times.Ryan also goes on to explain “the last two months of the year (November and December) have never been lower when the S&P was up the six months leading up to them. In fact, the avg return was a very impressive 6.0%, nearly double the avg return for the usually bullish last two months.”So my big takeaway is Powell and the Fed are going to play their usual game of word salad. They will create drama and the media will eat it up like a soap opera. But none of that is going to matter. As long as we get the rate cut, stocks and bitcoin are going higher. There is nothing the pessimists and doomsday predictors can do about it.Markets like cheap capital. Investors love interest rate cuts into bull markets. And we are likely to get both later today.Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementWhy “Crypto” Will Be Dead In 10 YearsAnthony and John Pompliano break down today’s markets — from DeFi and stablecoins reshaping finance to the U.S.–China trade deal and its impact on investors.We also discuss why sentiment is turning bullish, how to think about bitcoin and gold heading into year-end, and what White House Asset Management’s moves signal for the market.Enjoy!Podcast SponsorsFigure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. 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خلاصہ: The DeFi Mullet Is ComingJoin us at the 3rd Annual Bitcoin Investor Week!The 3rd annual Bitcoin Investor Week is returning to NYC on February 9th - 13th. This is the largest gathering of serious bitcoin investors in the world. 2,500+ people are expected this year. Speakers include Jan van Eck, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, Anthony Scaramucci, Matt Cole, Caitlin Long, Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, Brandon Lutnick, Fred Thiel, and many others.TICKETS: https://bitcoininvestorweek.comGet Your Tickets NowTo investors,I published a conversation with Coinbase’s Head of Consumer and Business Products yesterday. In the recording, Max Branzburg mentioned a “DeFi mullet,” which was described as the “easy Coinbase experience in the front and DeFi in the back.”This comment got me thinking about what is happening at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance. First, it is clear that “crypto” is not going to be a thing in a decade. Everything will be “finance” and you won’t know the difference between centralized or decentralized infrastructure.This is similar to what happened with the internet. There used to be internet companies and non-internet companies. People used to be considered cutting edge if they were using the internet, but now you would be deemed an idiot if you didn’t use the internet. The same thing is happening with crypto.Everyone from the new fintechs like Robinhood or the legacy firms like Blackrock are realizing they have to embrace this new technology in a variety of ways. No one calls Blackrock a bitcoin company and I don’t think many investors would consider Robinhood a crypto company. But those details don’t change the fact that each company is using this new technology to gain an advantage in the marketplace and better serve their customers.This decreasing importance of the “crypto” industry is a good sign. It means technology is becoming standard and expected. You can see the convergence happening perfectly with exchanges. Coinbase, Kraken, and many other crypto-native exchanges are racing to list public equities via tokenized securities. The fintechs like Robinhood, Public.com, eToro, and WeBull are quickly adding various crypto assets to their platform. Even ICE, CBOE, and Nasdaq are all finding various crypto products or companies to list on their exchanges.You aren’t going to have crypto and non-crypto exchanges. The end game is for exchanges to list public equities, crypto assets, and prediction markets all in one place. This is why Coinbase is publicly saying they want to be the “everything exchange,” while ICE is investing billions of dollars in prediction markets and crypto products.These firms are battling to be the future dominant venue for investors to buy and sell assets, regardless of their structure. The winner will capture tens of billions of dollars in profits. No wonder these exchanges are acting like they are in an all-out war for market share.But exchanges are not the only place this is happening.It seems like every day brings new headlines about stablecoins being adopted by the legacy finance players. Yesterday, we saw Coinbase announce a new partnership with Citi to “make on and off-ramping crypto easier for Citi’s institutional clients.” As part of the announcement, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said “It’s not a debate anymore - crypto and stablecoins are the tools that will update the global financial system.”I think it is hard to argue with his logic at this point.Large financial institutions like Citi are not the only ones trying to create shareholder value by embracing stablecoins in the legacy system. Western Union says they are piloting stablecoin settlement rails to speed up cross-border payments and cut reliance on SWIFT.Their CEO Devin McGranahan says the company “sees stablecoins as an opportunity, not a threat.” That seems like a fair perspective to have, but the real question is whether these legacy companies will be able to move quickly enough to avoid disruption.Based on the fact that Western Union’s stock is down more than 50% over the last 5 years, it is more likely the market believes Western Union is going to be one of the carcasses left on the playing field by stablecoins and crypto-native payment rails.But here is the thing about stablecoins, right now you have to be a crypto-native to use these assets. You need to know what a wallet is. You need to know the difference between USDT, USDC, USDe, and many others. You have to understand how wallet addresses work, along with making technical decisions like which blockchain to leverage for your transaction.Normal people aren’t going to do any of that. They want to simply send, receive, and hold US dollars. This is where the “DeFi mullet” comes into play. The interface has to be familiar and trusted, while the infrastructure and plumbing can be completely upgraded.Victor Yaw has a great way to frame what is likely to happen. He writes “stablecoins will disappear into the plumbing of finance. Money will move across borders the way data moves across networks: instantly, programmatically, and without intermediaries noticing.”That sounds magical. Users get a better experience, while avoiding any requirement to learn new technologies. Add in the fact that large organizations like Blackrock, JPMorgan, Citi, Venmo, and PayPal will be offering these services and you can see why adoption is only going to become more pervasive over time.We have already seen bitcoin find success in the legacy system by companies putting the digital currency in traditional wrappers like ETFs or public companies. Now we will see similar things happen with stablecoins, but it won’t be ETFs and public companies. Rather it will be payment services and exchange platforms bringing this technology to users.The DeFi mullet is coming. The question is who will be the biggest winner? There is a trillion dollar reward waiting for whoever captures the opportunity.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementWhy Coinbase Thinks Bitcoin & Crypto Will Replace Your BankMax Branzburg is the Head of Consumer Product at Coinbase, one of the most important companies in the crypto ecosystem. In this episode, we dive into...

خلاصہ: China Trade Deal And Rate Cuts Will Send Markets HigherYou’re invited to ResiDay 2025, a conference for today’s top leaders in residential real estate.Join myself and ResiClub Founder Lance Lambert on Friday, November 7th in New York City for a one-day conference bringing together the housing market’s top investors, developers, builders, lenders, and brokers. Expect top-tier speakers, networking with industry leaders, and data-driven conversation around the next decade of housing.Speakers highlights include…Bill Pulte, Director, FHFA (Virtual)Sean Dobson, Founder & CEO, AmherstJim Jacobi, President, Parkland CommunitiesKaz Nejatian, CEO, OpenDoor (Virtual)Raunaq Singh, Founder & CEO, RoamAllan Merrill, Chairman & CEO, Beazer HomesJohn Rogers, Chief Data & Analytics Officer, CotalityTickets are limited, secure your spot here: https://luma.com/ResiDay2025See You In November In NYCTo investors,Asset prices love responding to market catalysts. Sometimes catalysts are telegraphed and other times they come as a surprise. Take the Federal Reserve’s planned meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.Every investor knows it is coming. It has been marked on calendars all year. Most investors expect the central bank to cut interest rates. In fact, Polymarket is currently showing a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut.Asset prices like cheaper capital because investors push further out on the risk curve. Lower rates signal a continued tailwind for stocks and bitcoin. And it is not just the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions that matter in this regard.Bitwise’s André Dragosch writes “the number of global rate cuts past 24 months is already higher than after Covid but bears still think bitcoin has already peaked.”It is crazy to see 312 interest rate cuts around the world over the last 24 months when you realize the Fed’s interest rate is still set at 4% or higher. There is a lot of room to go for America’s central bank to bring rates back down to 1-2%.But the interest rate cuts this week are only part of the story. Everyone knows those cuts are coming, but what we didn’t know until this weekend was how likely a US-China trade deal was.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did the media rounds Sunday morning and wanted to make sure the world knew a trade deal is coming. Bloomberg writes:“Top trade negotiators for the US and China said they came to terms on a range of contentious points, setting the table for leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a deal and ease trade tensions that have rattled global markets.After two days of talks in Malaysia wrapped up Sunday, a Chinese official said the two sides reached a preliminary consensus on topics including export controls, fentanyl and shipping levies.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking later in an interview with CBS News, said Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “is effectively off the table” and he expected the Asian nation to make “substantial” soybean purchases as well as offer a deferral on sweeping rare earth controls. The US wouldn’t change its export controls directed at China, he added.”So what should we expect to happen if the US-China trade deal gets announced? Jordi Visser explains how bullish it should be for stocks and bitcoin:Investors like certainty. They want predictability. If they get clarity in the US-China trade negotiations, markets are going to take off higher. Don’t believe me? Scott Bessent’s commentary from the weekend has already sent stocks and bitcoin inching higher as investors anticipate the big trade deal confirmation.See here is the thing people don’t want to admit: the world operates in the middle of extreme positions. It is true that US and China are locked in economic competition. They both wish they could decouple. But that is not reality. These two countries depend on each other. So the trade deal is going to get done.And markets know this. The market also knows rates are going to come down and the government will never stop printing money. Each of these three things are bullish for stocks and bitcoin.But I do have one surprise for you. Gold’s explosive move in the last few months probably signals we are unlikely to see further price appreciation through the end of the year. In fact, we are already seeing gold sell off over the last two weeks and I think that could continue for the rest of 2025.In that scenario, Bizyugo points out the bitcoin mania started in 2020 when gold peaked. There is no guarantee we will see a repeat of 2020, but the macro environment is setting us up almost perfectly. I would be surprised if bitcoin didn’t run into the end of the year. And stocks will be side-by-side the digital currency.The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq are all at record highs. Things in motion stay in motion. And I am guessing the party is just getting started. Hope everyone has a great start to your week. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementProof That Bitcoin & AI Are Going Much HigherJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation, we cover Tesla’s robo-taxis, inflation, interest rates, and the U.S.–China trade dynamic. Jordi also shares how he’s positioning his portfolio, and what Bitcoin, gold, and market psychology reveal about where investors are headed next.Enjoy!Podcast SponsorsFigure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure...