FRED

خلاصہ: Manufacturing employment and productivityWhat’s really happening in US manufacturing? In our FRED graph above, we compare labor productivity for all workers in the manufacturing sector alongside the share of manufacturing employment in total US nonfarm employment since 1987. The graph tells a compelling story: We’re producing more per worker in manufacturing, but with far fewer workers relative to the overall workforce. Manufacturing productivity rose strongly from the late 1980s until the Great Recession in 2008-09. During this period, workers were producing more value per hour due to advances in automation, more-efficient production processes, and improved capital equipment. At the same time, the share of manufacturing workers in the total nonfarm workforce has been shrinking. This shows that even as factories are producing more, they require a smaller share of the labor force. Notably, these trends—often refereed to as structural transformation—were underway long before the China trade shock of the early 2000s. Since 2010 or so, we see that labor productivity in manufacturing has largely flattened, showing little growth compared with the period before 2010. Meanwhile, the decline in the manufacturing employment share has also slowed considerably. This divergence has large implications. First, it underscores how innovation is reshaping manufacturing. The trends displayed above are consistent with ideas surrounding automation and technology adoption. Second, it challenges notions about manufacturing being a major job engine. If productivity keeps rising while the share of manufacturing employment falls, employment gains in the economy will need to come from other sectors. How this graph was created : Search FRED for “All Employees, Manufacturing.” Above the graph on the right, click on “Edit Graph,” add a series by searching for “All Employees, Total Nonfarm,” and apply formula a/b . Open the “Add Line” tab and search for and select “Manufacturing Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers.” Open the “Format” tab and place the legend on the right for the second line. Start the graph on 1987-01-01. Suggested by Alexander Bick and Kevin Bloodworth II .Source InformationPublisher: FREDOriginal Source: Read more

خلاصہ: The harmonized consumer price index : An experiment in measuring inflation The FRED Blog often discusses inflation—in particular, the consumer price index reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPI from the BLS measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of consumer goods and services. Over the years, the BLS has improved the official CPI by updating samples and weights, expanding coverage, and enhancing how it calculates the numbers. Sometimes the BLS also produces experimental versions to explore alternative methodologies. One of these experiments is the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Our FRED graph above shows the year-over-year inflation rate measured by each of these indexes. They differ in a  few ways. Solid blue line: The CPI inflation rate estimates price changes for the noninstitutional urban population. It doesn’t include the rural/nonmetropolitan population in its coverage, due largely to the difficulty involved in sampling the remote and sparsely populated areas of the country. Dashed green line: The HICP inflation rate estimates price changes for the entire population, both urban and rural. And, unlike the CPI, it excludes cost measures of owner-occupied housing. (Learn more about how CPI measures housing inflation.) Despite the methodological differences between the CPI and HICP, both price indexes generally yield very similar inflation rates. The most visible differences are noticeable during times of heightened inflation volatility, such as the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the post-Covid inflation ramp-up and slow-down from 2021 to 2024. To learn more about this topic, visit the BLS and read this Monthly Labor Review by article Walter Lane and Mary Lynn Schmidt. How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average.” Click “Edit Graph” and the “Add Line” tab, then and search for and select “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: All-Items HICP for United States.” Last, use the “Edit Lines” tab to change the units to “Percent Change from Year Ago” and click on “Copy to all.” Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.Source InformationPublisher: FREDOriginal Source: Read more

خلاصہ: What is annualized GDP? : More about data units The FRED Blog has described key information about data contained in the “Notes” provided under each FRED graph. Today, to underscore, highlight, and emphasize that point, we offer another example. Our FRED graph above shows quarterly data of US gross domestic product (GDP) between 1947 Q1 and 2025 Q2 from two different sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF) (solid blue line) US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (dashed green line) The data plots don’t align, even after accounting for the fact that the IMF reports the data in millions of dollars and the BEA does so in billions of dollars. What gives? The notes below the graph contain the relevant information, or metadata, about the data: The BEA data are presented as annualized values, while the IMF data are not. That means the BEA reports each quarterly data figure as if GDP were to remain at that level for a whole year. That makes comparisons with related and historical data easier. In contrast, the IMF report a quarterly number for each quarter. To see this for yourself, click the word “Customize” in the bottom left corner of the FRED graph, which takes you to the series page on the FRED website. There, click “Edit Graph” / “Edit Lines” and customize “Line 1” by changing the formula a/1000 to a/1000*4. Voilá! The FRED graph now shows two identical data plots. How this graph was created: Search “FRED for and select “Nominal Gross Domestic Product for United States.” Click on “Edit Graph,” select the “Add Line” tab, and search for and select “Gross Domestic Product.” Last, use the “Edit Lines” tab to customize “Line 1” by typing the formula a/1000. Don’t forget to click “Apply.” Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.Source InformationPublisher: FREDOriginal Source: Read more

خلاصہ: Has the US dollar weakened? : Comparing the dollar against the world’s currencies What does it mean for a currency to be “strong”? The US dollar is considered stronger than another currency if one or both statements below are true: The prices of goods and services are cheaper in dollars than in that other currency. It costs more than one unit of that other currency to purchase one US dollar. Analysts and politicians have described some current policies of the federal government as an attempt to weaken the US dollar because they consider it to be too strong for a healthy economy. To see whether the US dollar has been weakened, we plot its exchange rate with the euro, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc. If the US dollar has indeed grown weaker since January 2025, we’d expect a decrease in the cost of a US dollar in these three relatively stable currencies. Our first FRED graph, above, does show a downward trend in 2025, suggesting a weakening of the dollar against these currencies. The yen and franc are widely considered “safe haven” currencies. Does the US dollar also exhibit this behavior against the currencies of emerging economies? Our second FRED graph, below, plots the dollar’s exchange rates with the currencies of the founding members of BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. These exchange rate trends vary: Since January 2025, the dollar has depreciated more significantly against the Russian ruble than against any other currency in either graph. But the dollar has been stable in relation to the Indian rupee and Chinese yuan. Finally, for a balanced view of the dollar’s value, we plot the nominal broad US dollar index. This index is a weighted average of the US dollar’s foreign exchange value against major US trading partners, including the euro area, all founding BRICS members except South Africa, and other major US trading partners such as Canada and Mexico. Since January 20, 2025, we see a clear depreciation in the US dollar across this  basket of foreign currencies. The takeaway: Recent exchange rates with stable currencies (e.g., the euro, yen, and Swiss franc) suggest a general weakening in the US dollar, which is consistent with the current federal administration’s stated preferences. But this depreciation is not uniform across all nations. How these graphs were created: First graph: Search FRED for and select “Currency Conversions: US Dollar Exchange Rate: Average of Daily Rates: National Currency: USD for Euro Area (19 Countries).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, under “Edit Lines” tab, select Line 1 and change the units from euros to “Index” and enter the date 2025-01-01 to equal 100 in your custom index. Use the “Add Line” tab to search for, select, and adjust the same series for Switzerland and Japan. To create the vertical line in January 2025, use “Add Line”/”Create Line”/“Create user-defined line”: Set the start and end dates to 2025-01-01 and set the start and end values to 80 and 105, respectively. Use the “Format” tab to customize line colors. Second graph: Repeat the same steps for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Third graph: Graph “Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, under “Edit Lines,” change the units to “Index (Scales value to 100 for chosen date)” and choose 2025-01-20. To create the vertical line, set the start and end dates to 2025-01-20 and set the start and end values to 90 and 102. Suggested by Paulina Restrepo-Echavarría and Mickenzie Bass.Source InformationPublisher: FREDOriginal Source: Read more

خلاصہ: 1111 : The FRED Blog’s 1111th post The FRED Blog has celebrated each time we’ve published 100 posts. The commentary on these milestones is sometimes only tenuously related to the number of the post, especially after we surpassed 1000. Today’s post is number 1111, which evokes thoughts of numerologists and data-conscious folk who need to point out when their clock shows 11:11. Today is also just a few days shy of November 11, Veterans Day this year. And, for some, corduroy appreciation day. So, we went fishing into FRED and came up with a couple of graphs for 1111. The one above shows that the share of GDP in GDP is consistently 1, period after period. Just to be thorough, the graph shows the data with both an annual and a quarterly frequency. We’ll keep this graph in mind for post number 11,111. Note that these series come from the GDP release, Section 1 (Domestic Product and Income), Table 1.1.10. Our second graph comes from FRED’s collection of recession indicators: This series has a value of 1 for every month when the US was deemed to be in recession and 0 otherwise. Such series are called indicator series or sometimes dummy series. The OECD also used to present such recession indicators for its member countries until 2022. More can be found on this page. You can cast your own thematic net into the great pond of FRED and see what you come up with. How these graphs were created: For the first graph, search FRED for and select GDP share of GDP’s quarterly series. It may be easier to use the series ID: A191RE1Q156NBEA. Click on “Edit Graph,” open the “Add Line” tab, and search for GDP share of GDP annual series: ID A191RE1A156NBEA. For the second graph, search FRED for “NBER recession” and click one of the options. Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.Source InformationPublisher: FREDOriginal Source: Read more

خلاصہ: Managing interest rates for monetary policy : Fed rates, market rates, and the target range The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets or manages several interest rates related to monetary policy. The FRED Blog has discussed this before. Today we tap into some recently added FRED data to describe how the Federal Reserve System keeps the effective federal funds rate (the FOMC’s preferred monetary policy instrument) between its upper and lower target range limits. The FRED graph above shows two different categories of rates. An interest rate set by financial markets Solid red line: The effective federal funds rate, which is set by financial institutions who charge one another for overnight loans in what is known as the federal funds market. Interest rates set by the FOMC Dotted orange lines: The targeted upper and lower limits of rates for trading in the federal funds market, described above. Dashed dark blue line: The Discount Window primary credit rate, which is the overnight rate charged to financial institutions that borrow from Federal Reserve Banks. Dashed light blue line: The Standing Repo Facility minimum bid rate, which is the minimum bid rate accepted by the New York Fed for propositions in Standing Repo (repurchase agreement) Facility operations. Repo transactions add short-term liquidity to financial markets. Dashed purple line: The reverse repo (repurchase agreement) award rate, which is the minimum bid rate accepted by the New York Fed for propositions in reverse repo operations. Reverse repo transactions withdraw liquidity from financial markets. In short, Federal Reserve Banks (which manage the discount window in their own Districts) and the New York Fed (which manages daily repo and reverse repo transactions) generally maintain the effective federal funds rate within the target range set by the FOMC. The New York Fed’s website has more detail about daily financial markets and monetary policy implementation. Notes: Don’t worry if you can’t separate some of the lines in the graph: Both the Discount window’s primary credit rate (in dark blue) and the Standing Repo Facility minimum bid rate (in light blue) are closely linked to the top of the target range (in orange). Similarly, the reverse repo award rate (in purple) is closely linked to the bottom of the target range (in orange). These relationships are a matter of choice, not rule. How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Federal Funds Target Range – Upper Limit.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Discount Window Primary Credit Rate.” Don’t forget to click on “Add data series.” Repeat the last two steps to search for and add the other four series: “Standing Repo Facility Minimum Bid Rate”, “Federal Funds Effective Rate”, “Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements Award Rate”, and “Federal Funds Target Range – Lower Limit.” Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.Source InformationPublisher: FREDOriginal Source: Read more

خلاصہ: Candy prices in eurozone countries Celebrating Halloween is becoming more popular in some European countries. Wearing costumes can be fun anywhere, but there may be differences in the cost of giving away candy, depending on the country. Happily, FRED has consumer price inflation data for Europe that can help us go trick-and-treating around this question. The treat The FRED graph above shows the change in the harmonized index of consumer prices for sugar, jam, honey, chocolate, and confectionery for four European countries currently using the euro as their domestic currency. To make comparisons easier, we start the data in September 2015, when the index had a value close to 100 for all these countries. As of September 2025: Estonia (solid blue line) had the highest inflation for all things sweet: 101.6% Belgium and Luxembourg (dashed green and orange lines) had treat-price inflation rates closest to the Eurozone median value of 41.8% Ireland (solid purple line) had steady deflation between 2015 and mid-2022 and a cumulative 7.6% treat-price increase over the past decade. The trick Bulgaria is scheduled to join the euro area in January 2026. Beyond the convenience of using a single currency to shop for candy in nearby countries using the euro, using a common currency could also temper some recent inflationary pressure in Bulgaria. However, as shown above and discussed earlier in the FRED Blog, using the same currency in multiple countries does not mean the inflation rate will be the same everywhere. How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery for Estonia.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery for Belgium.” Don’t forget to click on “Add data series.” Repeat the last two steps to search for and add the corresponding price index data for Luxembourg and Ireland. Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.Source InformationPublisher: FREDOriginal Source: Read more

خلاصہ: Demystifying the producer price index : What’s the difference between CPI and PPI? There are many price indices for the US economy. Most people focus on the consumer price index (CPI) because it’s relevant to individual members of the economy. Another index, often misunderstood,* is the producer price index (PPI). In short, the CPI is what consumers pay and the PPI is what sellers receive. You might think that what the producer gets would equal what the consumer pays, but our FRED graph above makes it clear that the CPI and PPI are different things.  The difference between the two sets of prices includes shipping, taxes, retail costs, and retail margins. (The profit margin of the retailer acts like a cushion that absorbs some of the spikes and fluctuations in the PPI.) The covered items are also different. The CPI includes consumer items such as rent, insurance, imports, and administrative fees that aren’t in the PPI. The PPI includes goods for export and goods not for household consumption, such as government purchases and investment by businesses, that aren’t in the CPI. Finally, there’s a big category in the PPI that isn’t in the CPI: intermediate goods. These are sold to other business for further processing. In fact, the PPI allows us to make the distinction between final and intermediate demand; the latter can even be separated into the various stages of the production process, as shown in our FRED graph below. How these graphs were created: First graph: Search FRED for “PPI.” Click on “Edit Graph,” open the “Add Line” tab, and search for and select “CPI.” Open the “Format” tab to select logarithmic scaling. (The period shown in the graph—CPI since 1947 and PPI since 1913—is so long that it makes sense to turn on the logarithmic scale so that similar percent increases early and late in the period appear similarly. Second graph: Go to the release table (find it in the notes of any of its series), check the series to display, and click on “Add to Graph.”    *The PPI used to be called wholesale price index, but it incorporates all types of producer prices, so the name was changed. Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.Source InformationPublisher: FREDOriginal Source: Read more